You used your pre-flop discount to see a cheap flop. Now it’s time to decide: invest more or cut your losses?
Last time, we talked about how the big blind gives you a discount to see flops with more speculative hands. You paid a small price for a ticket to see three cards—but not every hand is worth staying to the end.
Now comes the hard part: figuring out which flops are worth fighting for and which ones you should fold and move on from.
The Lottery Ticket Principle
Think of your preflop call like buying a lottery scratch-off ticket at a discount. You paid less than full price, so you could afford to buy more tickets. But once you scratch it off, you either have a winner or you don’t.
If your ticket is a dud, you don’t keep investing more money hoping it will magically become a winner. You toss it and move on to the next one.
That’s how post-flop play works from the big blind. You called with many speculative hands because you got a deal. Most of them won’t connect with the flop—and that’s fine. When they don’t hit, fold and wait for the next hand. When they do hit, that’s when you start building the pot.
What Counts as “Connecting” with the Flop?
Not all connections are created equal. Here’s a simple framework:
Strong connections (worth building a pot):
- Top pair with good kicker
- Two pair or better
- Strong draws (flush draws, open-ended straight draws, combo draws)
Medium connections (worth seeing another card cheaply):
- Bottom pair, middle pair, or weak top pair
- Weak straight draws (inside straight draws, or draws to the low side where a better straight is possible)
- Backdoor flush draws, especially with an overcard (usually against one opponent and small bets)
Missed completely (usually fold):
- No pair, no draw, no realistic hope of improvement
- Weak backdoor draws in multi-way pots
Two Different Post-Flop Strategies
Your approach depends on whether you’re in a limped pot or a raised pot.
In Limped Pots: Take Initiative When You Connect
Since no one showed strength pre-flop, you can often take control.
When you’re first to act:
- Bet 1-2 big blinds with your strong connections
- Check with everything else
When someone bets:
- Raise your strong hands
- Call with medium connections if the price is right
- Fold when you missed
Note: Limped pots usually involve multiple opponents, so you need stronger hands to continue. Weak top pair or worse pairs are often not good enough against three or four players.
In Raised Pots: Check to the Aggressor, Then Decide
When someone raised pre-flop, they claimed strength. Let them prove it.
Generally check to the player who raised. They showed strength, so give them a chance to continue their story.
When they bet, here’s your decision tree:
Check-raise with your best hands (about 20% of the time):
- Top pair with good kicker or better
- Two pair, sets, trips (you can occasionally slow play the very best hands that have little risk of getting worse)
- Strong draws (open-ended straight draws, some of your flush draws)
- Sometimes medium strength hands for balance
Why check-raise? If you only call, aggressive players will keep betting at you on every street. Check-raising accomplishes two things:
- Builds bigger pots when you have strong hands
- Makes opponents think twice before betting weak hands at you
You don’t need to check-raise often—but you need to do it enough that opponents can’t just run you over.
Call with medium connections (plus a few strong hands for balance):
- Weak top pair or middle pair
- Weak straight draws (heads up against small bet)
- Bottom pair (heads up against small bet)
- Occasionally your very best hands that are unlikely to be outdrawn (don’t overdo slow playing)
Fold when you missed:
- No pair, no draw against any serious bet
- Weak pairs against larger bets or multiple opponents
- Backdoor draws against multiple opponents
Multi-way adjustment: Against two or more opponents, tighten up significantly. Even top pair with a weak kicker becomes questionable in three-way action.
General Folding Guidelines
Here’s a simple guideline based on bet size and opponents:
Against one opponent:
- Small bet (1/3 the size of the pot or smaller): Fold about 1/3 of the time
- Medium bet (1/3 to 2/3 pot): Fold about 1/2 of the time
- Big bet (2/3 pot or more): Fold about 2/3 of the time
Against multiple opponents: Fold even more frequently.
Remember: you only needed to win 15-25% of the time to make your pre-flop call profitable. Folding most hands after the flop is expected and correct.
What About the Turn and River?
If you’re still in the hand after the flop:
If everyone checked on the flop:
- Bet the turn if you improved or have a decent pair or draw
- Otherwise, check again and fold to most bets
If you called a flop bet:
- Did you improve? Consider raising.
- Did you stay the same? Call with better hands (decent top pairs, best middle pairs); fold with your weakest hands (bottom pairs, missed draws, worst middle pairs).
- Don’t automatically call another bet—each bet is a checkpoint to re-evaluate. You should be folding some of your hands to each successive bet.
On the river:
- With a good made hand (good pair or better), you can usually call reasonable bets. But watch out for scary boards. Top pair can be pretty good, not on a board like A♣️T♠️9♠️8♠️8♣️ (straights, flushes, and full houses all possible).
- If you were drawing and missed, almost always fold (unless you think a bluff will work against one opponent).
- Don’t make “hero calls” trying to catch bluffs unless you have a real read and a hand that can beat a bluff.
The key: each new card and each bet is a checkpoint. Re-evaluate whether your hand is worth continuing.
Quick Examples
Example 1 – Limped Pot (you + 3 limpers)
You: 8♠7♠ in BB (you checked)
Flop: K♠9♠2♣
Action: First to act
Your play: Bet 1-2 BB (flush draw—strong connection)
Example 2 – Raised Pot (BTN raised, you called)
You: A♦9♦ in BB
Flop: A♠K♣5♥
Action: BTN bets 3 BB
Your play: Call (top pair, weak kicker—medium connection against one opponent)
Example 3 – Raised Pot (CO raised, you called)
You: 5♠4♠ in BB
Flop: A♦K♣Q♥
Action: CO bets half pot
Your play: Fold (completely missed—no pair, no realistic draw)
Example 4 – Raised Pot (HJ raised, you called)
You: 9♣9♠ in BB
Flop: 8♦7♠2♥
Action: HJ bets 3 BB
Your play: Check-raise to 8-10 BB (overpair—build the pot before higher cards come)
“But…” Common Objections
“What if they’re bluffing?”
They will be bluffing some percentage of the time, and yes, they’ll get away with it sometimes. That’s poker. The question isn’t “are they ever bluffing?” but rather “is THIS hand in THIS situation worth defending?” Focus on your hand strength and the odds you’re getting, not on catching every bluff.
“Won’t I look weak if I call pre-flop and then fold on the flop?”
No—you’ll look disciplined. Good players fold a lot from the big blind post-flop. That’s the trade-off: you see more flops at a discount, but you also fold more flops when you miss. The chips you save add up quickly. Paradoxically, if you keep calling with weak hands after the flop, that is when you look weak, and good players will exploit it advantage.
“But I flopped bottom pair—isn’t that something?”
Against one opponent and a small bet? Maybe. Against multiple opponents? Almost never. Bottom pair is barely better than no pair in multi-way pots.
Takeaway Challenge (for Our Next Game)
- Execute at least one check-raise. When you flop a strong hand or draw in a raised pot (top pair or better, flush draw, open-ended straight), check, let them bet, then raise. Notice how this builds bigger pots with your good hands.
- Practice disciplined folding. When you completely miss (no pair, no draw), fold to any serious bet. Track the chips you save.
- Notice the heads-up vs multi-way difference. Pay attention to how much stronger the winning hands are when more players are involved.
What’s Next?
We’ve covered the big blind—now it’s time to tackle a position that can be even trickier: the small blind. Without the discount and with even worse position, the small blind requires a completely different approach. That’s what we’ll explore next time.