Most hands miss most flops—so plan for it
You raise pre-flop with A♠️K♣️. Three opponents call. The flop comes 9♦️7♠️3♣️.
You completely missed. What now?
Here’s the reality: you’ll miss most flops. So will your opponents. The players who win aren’t the ones who hit more often—they’re the ones who think ahead about what to do when they don’t hit.
The Core Truth: Missing Is Normal
When you have two unpaired cards, you’ll flop a pair only about a third of the time.
When you have a pocket pair, you’ll flop three-of-a-kind only 12% of the time.
Flopping an even stronger hand—like a straight, flush, or full house—is even more rare.
This isn’t bad luck—this is poker. The question isn’t “will I miss?” but rather “what’s my approach when I do?”
The Numbers: How Often Will You Connect?
When You Have a Pocket Pair
Flopping a set: About 12% (roughly 1 in 8.5 flops)
With a hand like 7♣️7♦️, you’ll flop three-of-a-kind about once every 8-9 flops. When it happens, you usually want to get a lot of chips in the pot. But the other 88% of the time, you’re still holding just a pair.
Throughout this season, we will be giving you bite-sized strategies for how to play specific hands and specific situations, but here are some rules of thumb:
- Higher pair = more aggression (betting and raising). Lower pair = more caution (checking, calling, and folding).
- No overcards on the flop = bet. Multiple overcards = slow down.
These are starting defaults that will serve you well. As you gain experience, and as we provide more tips throughout the season, you’ll learn when position, board texture, pre-flop action and opponent tendencies justify deviating from these guidelines.
When You Have Two Unpaired Cards
Making any pair: About 32% (roughly 1 in 3 flops)
You’ll flop at least one pair about one-third of the time. This means you’ll miss completely about 68% of the time. (And note that not all pairs are made equally: A♠️5♣️ has a pair on a board of K♠️Q♦️5♦️, but that pair of 5s is still pretty weak and may not be strong enough to continue against lots of aggression.)
Making two pair or better: About 2% (rarely)
Don’t count on flopping two pair or trips—it almost never happens.
So, 68% of the time, you’ll be navigating the flop with no pair. Again, we’ll talk in future articles about specific situations and hand types, but for now, just make sure you have realistic expectations and think ahead about what you plan to do with your hand if it doesn’t make a pair. Here are some quick guidelines:
- Stronger hand (e.g. A♠️K♣️ or K♠️Q♦️) = more aggression. Weaker hand (e.g. 7♠️6♠️) = more caution, but remember to think about draws, as discussed below).
- Fewer opponents = more aggression. More opponents = more caution.
- In position (i.e. acting after your opponents) = more aggression. Out of position (acting before your opponents) = more caution.
Again, these are simplified starting points. Real poker decisions involve reading opponents, understanding position, and evaluating board texture. But if you’re starting from zero, these defaults will help you balance aggression (winning more with good hands, getting bluffs through) with smart caution (losing less with weak hands).
The Backup Plan: Draws Give You Options
You won’t hit a pair very often, so having other ways to continue matters. This is why suited and connected cards have value.
With suited cards:
- Flopping a flush draw: About 11% (1 in 9 flops)
- Flopping a made flush: About 0.8% (basically never)
With connected or almost-connected cards:
- Flopping a straight draw (either open-ended (with two ways to complete the straight) or gutshot) (with only one way to make the straight): Between 10-20% depending on your cards
- Flopping a made straight: About 1-3% (rarely)
Why this matters: When you have 9♠️8♠️ and the flop comes K♠️7♠️2♦️, you missed making a pair—but you have a flush draw. That’s nine cards that can win you the pot on later streets, giving you a reason to continue even though you didn’t “hit” the flop. Plus, with nine “outs” to a very strong hand, you can continue playing and potentially win even if you make something weaker, like a pair of 9s or 8s (you probably would not stay in the hand past the flop if your only way to improve were to hit one of those low pairs).
Suited and connected cards provide backup options when you don’t make a pair immediately.
The Number of Opponents Changes Everything
This is important: that 68% miss rate applies to each individual opponent. But with multiple opponents, the math shifts significantly:
Heads-up (one opponent): They missed about 68% of the time. Betting ends the hand more often.
Against two opponents: Roughly 50-50 that at least one connected. Think more carefully about betting without a hand.
Against three or more: Someone probably hit. Betting without a real hand or draw is much riskier.
Before the flop, consider: How many opponents will I likely face? Hands that can bet when they miss (like A♠️K♣️) work best in position against one or two players. Hands that need to improve (like small pairs or suited connectors) prefer multi-way pots where you can win a bigger pot if you hit. (We will talk more about these hand selection principles in future tips.)
The Bottom Line
Missing the flop isn’t bad luck—it’s normal poker. You’ll miss most of the time.
What separates good players from the rest: they think through their approach before the flop comes. They know their default move when they don’t improve. They adjust based on the specific flop cards and how many opponents are in the hand. And they value draws as backup options when they don’t hit a pair.
Next time you look at your cards pre-flop, ask yourself: “What will I do if I miss the flop?” Because you probably will.
Having an answer ready is what turns missing into winning.
What’s Next?
Now that you know how likely you (and your opponents) are to connect with the flop, we can talk about one of the most fundamental flop strategies: continuation betting.