Understanding the math behind common pre-flop showdowns can give you confidence in your short-stack play
In our latest strategy article about short-stack play, we talked about moving all-in with hands like J♠️T♠️ and not being afraid when someone calls you. But what actually happens when you get called? What are your real chances of winning?
Understanding these percentages will help you make better decisions about when to shove and when to call—and will take away some of the fear of putting your chips at risk.
Way Ahead or Way Behind (80/20 or worse)
Some matchups in poker are very lopsided:
Higher pair vs lower pair: When 99 runs into KK, the nines only win about 20% of the time. This is a brutal matchup for the underdog.
Overpair vs undercards: When you have QQ and someone shoves with 9♠️7♠️, you’re about 80% to win. If they have offsuit cards like 9♣️7♦️, you’re even better—closer to 85%. This is one of the worst situations you can encounter when all-in.
Dominated hands: When you share the same high card but have a worse second card, you’re “dominated.” AJ vs AK is the classic example—both have an Ace, but the King dominates the Jack. AJ wins only about 25-30% of the time. Same with KT vs KQ or A9 vs AJ. The key: domination happens when you share a card with your opponent but have a worse kicker.
The key insight: Even in these lopsided scenarios, the underdog isn’t completely dead. That 20% with pocket nines means you’ll win 1 out of 5 times. And even when dominated with AJ vs AK, you have about a 1-in-4 shot.
The In-Between: Coin Flips and Close Races
Most all-in situations aren’t so lopsided—they’re closer than you think:
Classic coin flips (45-55%):
Pair vs two overcards: This is the most common “race” in poker. When 88 faces A♠️K♠️, it’s almost exactly 50-50 (the pair is a tiny favorite, about 52-48). JJ vs AQ is similar. QQ vs AK is closer to 55-45 in favor of the queens.
The suited bonus: When the unpaired cards are suited, they pick up about 3-4% equity compared to offsuit. So 88 vs AKo is 54-46 for the pair, but 88 vs AKs is only 51-49. This is why moving all-in with hands like J♠️T♠️ (as discussed in short-stack article) can be a good strategy. The suited connector has multiple ways to win: hitting a pair, making a straight, or making a flush. This is why suited connectors are such good shoving hands—they have excellent equity even when called by a pair.
Close races (55-65%):
Pair vs one overcard: When TT faces A♠️8♠️, the tens are about 65-35 favorites. The undercard (the 8) gives the unpaired hand fewer ways to improve.
Unpaired hand vs unpaired hand (non-dominated): When two unpaired hands face each other and neither dominates the other, the better hand is usually a 55-65% favorite. Examples:
- Two high cards vs two lower cards: AK vs 76 is about 65-35
- Interlaced cards: AJ vs KT is about 60-40
- High and low vs two middle cards: A8 vs QJ is about 55-45
All of these fall somewhere in the 55-65% range depending on how connected and suited the hands are.
What This Means for Your Game
1. Even “bad” all-in situations give you a real chance.
When you shove J❤️T❤️ from the button with 10 big blinds and someone calls with 99, you’re not crushed—you’re about 45% to win, almost a coin flip. Even against A♠️K♦️, you’re about 40%. Getting called isn’t a disaster; it’s a gamble with decent odds.
2. Pairs are favorites, but not locks.
When you call someone’s shove with 99 and they show AK, don’t feel invincible. It’s a coin flip. You’ll win about half the time—which is great!—but you’ll also lose about half the time. That’s just poker.
3. Recognize when you’re in trouble.
The time to worry is when you have the same high card but a worse kicker, or a pair against a higher pair: AJ vs AK, KT vs KQ, or 77 vs JJ. These are the matchups where you’re a significant underdog (20-30% or worse). This is why we emphasize playing stronger hands when someone’s already in the pot—you don’t want to risk all your chips when crushed or dominated.
The Bottom Line
The next time you’re considering a shove or a call in our tournament, remember these numbers. Even when you’re behind, you usually have at least 30-40% equity—and often more. (And remember, you could actually be ahead or all your opponents could fold.) The fear of “what if they have a better hand?” should be tempered by understanding that poker is a game of percentages, not certainties.
Being a 45% underdog and winning isn’t lucky—it’s math playing out over time. Shove those J❤️T❤️ with confidence, knowing that even when called, you’re never as far behind as it might feel.